John Kerry wins. Big time. This is based on two gut feelings. First, the enthusiasm of the anti-Bushies is stronger than the enthusiasm of the pro-Bushies. Second, I think the polls that show the race a dead heat or a small Bush lead suffer from some pretty large selection bias. They over sample Republicans and undersample Democrats. Does anyone remember Bush's big lead in the polls going into the 2000 election?

I hope I'm wrong and David Mayer is right (scroll to the bottom of the post).

Or consider this scenerio offered up by a well-placed friend of mine in D.C.:

Some have noted the real possibility of an electoral college tie, 269-269. All it would take would be for Bush to carry the same states as in 2000, except that Kerry peels off New Hampshire (likely) and West Virginia (less likely but not inconceivable). Other plausible scenarios also get you to a 269-269 electoral tie; e.g. Kerry takes away New Hampshire and Florida but loses Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Iowa. But WAIT! The plot thickens... In this scenario, Bush still carries West Virginia, with some complications... last summer at their state convention the West Virginia Republicans chose their electors, and they chose as one a man named Rich Robb, for 29 years the GOP Mayor of South Charleston; but nobody told Robb they were going to nominate him, and Robb wasn't there at the convention. Robb now says he will not vote for Bush. In this scenario, would he vote for Kerry, giving Kerry a 270-268 electoral college v ictory? What if Kerry won the national popular vote? Or would he vote for someone else, leaving no candidate with a majority and sending the race to the House of Representatives? Where, incidentally, Bush will almost surely win, since the Republicans control most state congressional delegations.

Well, I doubt it will come to that. These are parlor games for the Washington elite. I have predicted Bush all year by 3-6 points, enough to translate into a solid electoral college majority. I'm very nervous about that prediction tonight but see no opportunity for glory in changing it now!

Overall, the Republicans go into tomorrow with a higher upside than the Democrats. It is almost impossible to conjure a realistic scenario for a Kerry win if he fails to take two of three of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. While Bush losing two of the three would put him in a tough spot, there remain several plausible scenarios in which he could win, especially if Ohio is one of those going to Kerry - then Bush could win just by picking up Michigan. Wisconsin and Minnesota would also offset an Ohio defection, and those two plus Iowa would offset the loss of Florida, as would Michigan and Wisconsin or Minnesota; or Michigan, Iowa, and surprising Hawaii. Wisconsin or Minnesota plus Iowa and either New Mexico or Hawaii offsets the loss of Pennsylvania, and so on. In a dream night for Bush, he gets about 375-380 electoral votes; a dream night for Kerry gives him between 325 and 350. I'm sure either will settle for 270.

Similar in the Senate. A dream night for the Democrats maybe gets them to 51 seats; a dream night for the GOP and they find themselves at 56 seats. I'd look for a GOP gain of a couple seats. The GOP will keep the House - in a dream night, they could gain 12 or more seats.