November 03, 2004
Media Bias

In 2000, the networks called states won by Bush about 15 minutes slower on average than states won by Gore even after controlling for other factors that might have affected call lags. There were no states that Gore won by six or more points that received delayed calls (i.e., were not called immediately upon poll closings) but there were nine states that Bush won by six or more points that received delayed calls. (See my article with Wilson Mixon and Amit Sen in the January 2004 issue of Public Choice for details.)

I haven't had time to run the numbers from last night, but ocular least squares (a nifty term I first heard from co-blogger Bob) suggests CNN might have been up to its old tricks. There were a number of states that Bush easily carried such as NC, SC, VA, and MT that received delayed calls. I'll update after I get a chance to fully analyze the call times.

UPDATE: I've now had a chance to analyze the call lags and have found a pattern similar 2000 (so much for the networks fixing the system).

Some quick descriptives:
States won by Bush with margins of 5-10 percentage points: 5
Number of those states receiving lagged calls: 5

States won by Kerry with margins of 5-10 percentage points: 5
Number of those states receiving lagged calls: 2

States won by Bush with margins of 10+ percentage points: 22
Number of those states receiving lagged calls: 6

States won by Kerry with margins of 10+ percentage points: 8
Number of those states receiving lagged calls: 0

Probit and Tobit analyses that control for each state's number of electors, pre-election poll margin (absolute value), and actual election margin (absolute value) find that, ceteris paribus, Kerry states were significantly less likely to receive lagged calls and that, ceteris paribus, Kerry states received significantly shorter call lags. ("Significantly" in the previous sentence refers to the 1% level.)

What to make of the results? There are at least two possible interpretations (other than random happenstance). First, the apparent media bias may really reflect systematic problems (deliberate or otherwise) in the methodologies (e.g., exit polling) that networks use to call states. Second, it could be a deliberate attempt on the part of networks to dampen voter turnout in states which still have open polls. Consistent with this interpretation is the fact that many of the Bush states with healthy margins but delayed calls are early closers NC, SC, VA, FL, MS, LA, and AR.

Posted by E. Frank Stephenson at 09:11 AM  ·  TrackBack (115)

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

Our Bloggers
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Craig Depken
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden
Noel Campbell

Search

Archives
By Author:
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Edward Bierhanzl
Craig Depken
Ralph R. Frasca
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden
Noel Campbell

By Month:
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004

Powered by
Movable Type 2.661

Site design by
Sekimori

XML