October 24, 2006
Pre-election blues c. 1906

From the Oct. 24, 1906 NYT:

COLUMBUS, Ohio - The Republican County Chairman of Ohio informed Chairman Dick of the State Executive Committee at a meeting Tuesday that they must have money to hire campaign workers if satisfactory results are to be expected. Apathy exists everywhere, the Chairman said when called upon to report after speeches had been made by Congressmen Burton and Kiefer. "For ten years the Republican workers have been fed on things material," he explained, "and it is now too late to feed them on promises." In other words, it takes money to make the political mare go fast enough to bring in votes. However, the Chairman reported that the chances for Republican success are constantly growing brighter.

On a related note, Barron's Magazine (sub req'd) predicts House and Senate races based on the amount of money each candidate raises. This sounds familiar, as my 1998 Economics Letters paper outlines the same basic approach, although I differentiate between individual, PAC, and party contributions. I found that PAC contributions delivered more votes per dollar, whereas party contributions correlated with fewer votes - my reasoning being that parties only give substantial money to losers in order to save face.

Did Barron's steal from me? I am not that egotistical, however it is nice to see "independent" confirmation of years-old research.

Posted by Craig Depken at 12:21 PM in Politics

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

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