September 29, 2008
$700 billion for "price discovery"?

I was talking about this puzzle with George Selgin, and he suggested I raise it here. Can anyone explain to us Ben Bernanke's theory according to which taxpayer-financed asset purchases can help a troubled asset market get unstuck, i. e. regain its previously high volume? Is that based on any known theory of markets, or any known historical experience? The purchases are supposed to help the market in "price discovery," via some cleverly designed mechanism (as yet unspecified). Bernanke swears it isn't about overpaying for assets to subsidize the institutions selling the troubled assets, only about finding the market a price. But in that case, why would anything close to $700 billions of purchases be needed?

Comments are open.

Posted by Lawrence H. White at 10:47 PM in Economics

Comments

I'll take a stab at it: Instead of writing off all bad assets from a company's balance sheet, which would create an insolvency risk for highly leveraged firms, the asset purchases at this time are intended to only to prevent deflationary money destruction resulting from the collapse of these institutions. (Illustration here: http://tinyurl.com/4j3933 )

The price discovery function occurs later as the distressed assets purchases by the Treasury are structured similarly to a stock market index fund or perhaps more appropriately, a real estate investment trust. Initially, the Fed/Treasury would own the vast majority of "shares," with the number of shares floated increasing over time as the market valuation of the assets increases (ideally). Shareholders would be paid dividends from income generated by rents collected from component income-producing assets.

It's not a great example, especially as stock values are now at 1994 levels, but this post (http://tinyurl.com/3ve7pp )showing a chart of the S&P 500 vs its trailing year dividends per share from December 1991 to July 2008 illustrates how that price discovery/recovery process might look in practice following the effects of an asset bubble's inflation and collapse.

Posted by: Ironman at September 30, 2008 12:11 AM

One other thing - to the best of my knowledge, the $700 billion figure was pretty arbitrarily selected. It may well represent a Treasury official's idea of a number big enough to scare politicians into acting but small enough to still get passed through Congress.

Posted by: Ironman at September 30, 2008 12:13 AM

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Posted by: wnjizemrj at October 9, 2008 12:47 AM

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

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