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May 07, 2009
Baseball #'s
Once again my beloved Reds are off to a better than expected start. They are above 0.500 with a 14-13 record as of today. Also once again, my wife is getting excited believing that in spite of all the fundamentals, this is the year the Reds will put it all together. "Remember 1990!" she will say. I mutter in reply something about "regression to the mean" and for the better part of a generation, the Reds have sadly proved me right. I just pulled the numbers from MLB for current win percentage and run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed). Running a simple regression yields the following result: Win% = 0.50 + 0.0035 RunDiff So as expected a larger run differential converts into a higher winning percentage. And sure enough my Reds are performing better than expected. Their negative 13 run differential projects to a 0.452 winning percentage--fully 6.6 points below their actual .519 showing. Here are the data (sorted from high to low based on the residuals):
Posted by Robert Lawson at 11:33 AM in Sports
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