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January 31, 2010
The money will be here for a while
“For example, it is likely that [the credit channel linking monetary policy to the real economy] ha[s] at various times affected residential investment (which, remember, accounts for the largest fraction of the decline in economic activity immediately following a monetary tightening). …. In fact, Boldin's mortgage burden variable has a close positive correlation with the federal funds rate, which we have used as a proxy for changes in monetary policy. The correlation arises both because nominal interest rates rise and household incomes fall following a tightening of monetary policy. The funds rate is also positively correlated with indicators of up-front housing costs, such as the average number of "points" charged on mortgages. The effects of monetary policy on such variables as the mortgage burden and mortgage terms help explain its strong impact on housing demand, despite the presumably weak link between monetary policy and long-term real interest rates.” That’s from “Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,” Ben S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48. Sorry, but my copy is gated from Jstor. Posted by Noel Campbell at 08:07 PM
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